cellio | evacuations

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evacuations

Katrina is certainly a tragedy, and I feel really bad for the people who've lost lives and property. My heart goes out to those people. But two things: (1) this is not anything like the tsunami in magnitude, Mr. Mayor, and (2) there are other things going on in the world too and I'd like the news to cover them. (I mean, really, if I were a nefarious government agent itching for some shenanigans, this would be the perfect time.)

anastasiav posed a thought experiment today. Given 12-24 hours' notice that you have to clear out and you have only your current vehicle with which to do it, what would you take? I have sometimes played through the "the house is on fire" scenario, where you maybe grab something on your way out the door, but this is a different scenario.

This isn't the order in which I thought of things, nor is this in full priority order, but I'm trying to group things for easier reading. For purposes of the exercise I'm assuming that my VW Golf is not currently in lemon mode. :-)

The universal "this goes without saying, right?" list: passport, cash, checkbook, cell phone, non-perishable compact food, drinking water, medicine, blankets, a few changes of clothes, toiletries, contents of the "important papers" drawer.

Every bit as essential to me: the cats (duh), some food for them, computer CPU and external hard drive. Yes, if a shelter turned my cats away I'd keep driving, as long as I possibly could. (And by the way, the cats and the external hard drive -- in that order -- are what I'd grab in the event of a fire.)

Thinking practically: contents of the "original work" drawers (research notes, sheet music, etc that aren't on the computer), one good knife, photos of items being left behind (including contents of bookshelves) for the insurance claim and to help with rebuilding,

Sentimental stuff: photo albums (I don't have a lot), the afghan my grandmother (of blessed memory) made for me (doubles as a blanket, too), a few (specific) pieces of jewelry, copies of my band's CDs (one each, I mean, not stockpiles), kiddush cup from our wedding, Shabbat candlesticks from a good friend.

Special and possibly surprising to some: about a dozen specific religious texts, or that entire section of the bookcase if I had room. Books are replacable, but that's not the point. I would do my best to specifically rescue the books containing the (real, not translated) name of God. I would also check with my synagogue and offer to take one torah scroll with me if needed. Yes, I would give my religious community a chunk of my evac space for something that important; it's kind of like tithing, when you think about it.

(Oh, in case you're wondering, Dani has his own car. We'd certainly try to use both. So I haven't factored him into this. This is my list, not our list.)

Unless there's room (which I kind of doubt), my hammer dulcimer didn't make the cut (though I'd grab the bag of hammers; good hammers are really important, and they're small). It's expensive and it would be a shame, but I do know where to get another. Losing the case would be annoying (not commercially available), but in this scenario I'd be doing enough rebuilding of the core parts of my life that this would be noise. (Err. So to speak.)

Sure, I've got lots of other stuff -- but most of it is stuff that could be replaced. It's just stuff. The things I listed go beyond "just stuff".

What are the things that you consider to be beyond "just stuff"?

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In terms of number of deaths, the tsunami was bigger.

However, in terms of worldwide economic impact. . .

Well, the Port of Louisina is apparently the single biggest grain-exporting port in the world. Depending how badly that port is smashed up, this could suck for people EVERYWHERE.

Good point. I'll admit that I was thinking of the direct impact -- people and property -- because I suspect that's what the mayor was thinking of when he said it. My perception could be mistaken, of course.

Some numbers I heard suggest that the insurance bill is going to be like ten times the insurance bill for the tsunami, simply because 99% of the people killed, injured, and displaced by the tsunami had no insurance.

Oh, also: I have a rule of cutting slack to people who've just undergone great personal tragedy who make inaccurate hyperbolic statements. And being the mayor of a city which was in the process of being destroyed, to an extent that just hasn't happened in the 1st World since 1945 or so -- that's got to be a great personal stress.

The insurance bills will be higher, yes. That's not the same as the cost of rebuilding. (And I'm not taking into account the routine costs in the various locations.) At least the folks in Mississippi and Louisiana can take comfort in knowing that some of their financial losses will be taken care of. That's small comfort if you lost family, but it's more than many folks get.

Ok, good point. It's (too) easy to be analytical from a couch hundreds of miles away.

Assuming I had renter's insurance? :-)

Grab my grandfather's dogtags and head for the door. I don't think there's anything else that isn't replaceable.

The dog, the computers, some clothes, meds, musical instruments, and photos. Maybe some jewelry. My piggy bank.

We have a friggin' big van. That given, and its tank is full, we'd have:
20-30 gallons potable water
3 folding chairs
3 coolers stocked with dry ice before emergency set in.
2-3 folding tables +trays
2-3 tents
1 big tarpaulin
3 small tarpaulins
Many extra sticks to rig tarps as needed
Lots of rope.
camp stove for boiling water
Fuel for same
3 kitchen knives (dagger works) and a couple wooden spatulas
Basic feast gear. Glass if optional
Mixing bowl
cutting board
bedding (in bundles in storeroom)
Keys
cash (lots)
whatever is perishible in the fridge
canned food (for people)
Dry food (for people and aminals)
Boxed soy milk and soup
cast iron implements
Candles & lanterns + wax
flashlights, batteries, and rechargers.
Dry hardwood
Personal documents--I am a USer--no passport, but an original BC.
Various books _ I know what they are_
Good jewelry. It can be bartered.
Clothes for several+days. I'm not fussy that way. Just something for any condition of heat, cold, or damp. I know where they are. I won't be stylish, but I will be comfortable.
Toiletries + first aid kit which includes antiseptics and bandages. They overlap.

If there's time I could get sentimental. But I'm assuming 12 hrs. Our house is thick brick with a reasonable roof, so I'm hoping for the best.

But I keep this in my brain for reference. Don't know how and hope never to need it. But someone should know this stuff in any given residence at all times. We've got a tornado watch on.

Am I the only person looking at the situation, seeing a multi-mile wide cesspool filled with raw sewage, dead bodies, free roaming vermin, humans still in close proximity, and temperatures expect into the 90s, and thinking, "Hot Zone"?

Yeah, I'd say this could suck for people everywhere.

(That said, I understand the body of water which is flooding the city is salt water, which definitely helps.)

Something that didn't occur to me until

zoethe mentioned it: "It's not unfair to pronounce Katrina 'our tsunami.' The only reason she didn't kill thousands was that we had fair warning." (http://www.livejournal.com/users/zoethe/391352.html)

I'd forgotten that one of the big issues with the tsunami was the lack of an early warning system there.

This question is probably easier for me because of the recent two cross-country moves done in my car, so I know what an amazing amount of stuff I can cram in there. The answers also depend heavily on where I intend on /going/ with all this stuff in my car. I can be in NorCal in less than a day, and probably still know enough people in Pittsburgh to couch-surf for some while and that's only 3-4 days' drive (of course, having everyone trying to bail out of an area at once would certainly increase travel times). If I planned on literally camping out somewhere that would naturally require different provisions. This assumes that only a relatively isolated area is affected, rather than the entire country going splat. Anyway, in no particular order:

Vital paperwork: passport, bank and credit card info, IDs, insurance info, etc
Cat, cat food and dishes, litter and box, carrier
Enough cash for about 2 weeks. Checkbook and credit cards.
Small folder of heirloom photographs, cards, and other compact things of sentimental value
Basic kitchen gear: chef's knife, paring knife, saucepan, wooden spoon, mixing bowl, cutting board, a couple of sets of plates and utensils, other items as space permits, a cookbook. Valerie's silverware.
Drinking water in large and small containers
High-energy and less perishable snacks: energy bars, soy milk, apples, Red Bull (my driving upper of choice)
About a week's worth of basic clothing including overcoat and boots depending on season, plus an interview suit and one dressy outfit
A few favorite pieces of jewellry
Toiletries and medications
Communication: cell phone w/ car charger, laptop, PDA, mp3 player, some CDs (rural radio sucks)
A few books for entertainment
Batteries of various sizes
Flashlight
Rope
Swiss army knife and pocket knife
Favorite stuffed animal
Pillow, sheet, blanket

Assuming my renter's insurance still exists, most everything else is "just stuff."

I would guess for the people of the Gulf coast this sucks in ways that I hope to never understand.

I am thinking that the long term effects both to public health and to the economy (from the loss of the port of New Orleans) we can't even guess at yet. But it will be really bad.

We don't have a car, so its an interesting question. Thankfully weather like this doesn't tend to hit here, so its more accademic. If things happen its eather they decide to evacuate us, in which case we have months to figure out where to go, or G-d Forbid Iran gets the bomb, in which case we have enough time to say a short prayer and run for a shelter.

Passports, ID's etc
The Dog and the Cat
Food

A few pictures,

Laptops.

The US had a very effective system (or at least mostly good enough) to detect stuff like this but also to get word out to people as quickly. in the Tsunami there was no early detection but also no notification. the US NWS had some clues it was going to happen pretty early, but there was no one to call and say "Hey there is going to be a problem in 4-6 hours" and no way for that person to do something if they did call them.

But two things: (1) this is not anything like the tsunami in magnitude, Mr. Mayor, and (2) there are other things going on in the world too and I'd like the news to cover them.

(1) several good points have been made here already, so I guess I'll just add that New Orleans alone has a regular population of over 400,000. Add to that all the outlying areas, plus the coastal areas in Alabama and especially Mississippi that have been totally destroyed. New Orleans is being completely evacuated and no one knows when (or if) people will be able to return. Its not completely unlikley that a million people -- a million people will be completely homeless for at least several weeks, if not more. FEMA is talking about setting up refugee camps (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/082905dntexafterkatrina.31f1021.html) to deal with those who have nowhere else to go. Perhaps the loss of life is not as great as it was in the Tsunami, but the impact to an entire region will be as great ... if not greater. And the most frightening part? Its not even peak Hurricane season yet. Remember those refugee camps? Now imagine if a second storm, of any strength, strikes the area.

(2) On the contrary, I want to see the same level of coverage for Katrina that we saw for September 11th. I want to see all news, all the time. I want the commercials to stop running. I want America to wake up to see what's happened here. Charities and relief agencies raised over $657 million in the three weeks following September 11th. 2,776 families shared donations totaling $54.3 million from the Red Cross alone. That's just a hair under $20,000 per family -- and these were people who lost a life, yes, but not a home; not everything they own except the clothing on their backs. Yes, insurance and FEMA will help some, but it won't be nearly enough. Katrina is, by far, the worst natural disaster ever on American soil.

Sorry to rant, but I'm fearful that the help that is needed will simply never materialize. I'm fearful that American's are tapped out on crisis, that they feel as you do -- that it doesn't affect them, that they just want to see other news, hear other stuff. I'm fearful that we'll have honest-to-god refugee cities in America for a year or more to come. I'm fearful that New Orleans (in particular) will become a lawless hot-zone that can never be reclaimed. I'm fearful that America just doesn't want to pay attention, and these people who are suffering now -- and, in particular, those who lack the means to rebuild their lives -- will suffer more, and worse, before the end of the week, not to mention the end of the year.

If smart people like you can feel this way, what chance does the rest of America have?

On the practical side, I don't know...I'd probably just pack a bag.

The main reason being no car, no license...it may take all that time to find a way to leave, especially if people are jamming their vehicles with their possessions.

That, and there's very little in terms of stuff that I'd rate with high importance. And pretty much all the music I"ve written that I'd want to save is online...I'd have to trust it could stay up long enough for me to get it. (So don't happen this week, because my hosting needs to be renewed by Friday.)

We've had to pick up and leave on short notice before, sometimes with as little as 30 minutes. For a long time we kept bags packed just in case. Haven't done that in a while now, but we are getting our readiness level back up.

I used to think about what I'd grab out of my room if something were to happen as a way of going to sleep. Yes, I'm a bit odd. It usually turned into a dream where I had lots of time, and was able to carry, essentially, everything. Once it turned into a dream where my whole room was transported someplace else and I had to make do with what was in it.

But to the question at hand: like cafemusique, I'm hampered by not having a car, and living in a large city filled with other people who don't have cars. I'd want to take everything; I'd have to settle for taking a good deal less... hmm... I don't really have time to write a good answer, since we've got to finish Joy's move today...

I think it will turn out that Katrina killed thousands. There's a comment somewhere on Making Light (http://www.nielsenhayden.com/makinglight) about doing volunteer work getting people from a nursing home off evacuation buses. Out of 250 people, 2 died on the 4 hour bus trip.

I'm not sure what to multiply this by, but getting it up to thousands doesn't seem at all unlikely.

Thousands dead still doesn't put it in a class with the tsunami, though.

I'm just thankful that malaria has been essentially eradicated in the United States. But there will be plenty of other diseases.

It's not that I don't care; I certainly do. I know this is a big problem for the people who live in that area, and I hope to never experience something like that. (I hadn't thought of it as the biggest natural disaster we've had, but you're right that it probably is. I was ssuming the SF earthquake of 1906 was bigger.) I've already sent off a donation, which is about all I can do from here to help. And I do want the news to cover this.

But there are other pages in the newspaper, other places for links on news sites, and other broadcast minutes available, too. For most of Monday every single link "above the fold" on CNN was Katrina-related; I think people would have been just as informed if half of those links had been other national and international news, and I woudln't have had to dig so much to find out what's going on in Iraq, for example.

Ooh, excellent point. I hadn't thought of that.

bradhicks has suggested that instead of refugee camps, people displaced by Katrina be moved to cities across the US, many (most?) of which are losing population. They'd still need a lot of help, but they'd have better access to what they need and better chances of finding work.

This is basically what I was going to say. Statistically, no, it's not the same as the tsunami. To the survivors (and those who didn't), to those who didn't have much and yet lost it all (with no insurance to replace it), to the people who watched their spouse or child wash away and could do nothing about it, I'm sure it's every bit as catostrophic.

That's a very good idea. There would be some resistance from the people affected, because a refuge camp is temporary ("I can go home again later") and a move to another city feels and probably is permanent. Attachment is a powerful emotion, and even if you "only" lost property I expect there's a grieving process akin to losing a person. (If I found myself on the street with nothing but the clothes on my back, you can be darn sure I'd be grieving!) But all that said, if people could be persuaded to move to other cities sooner rather than later, I'm inclined to agree that this would help enormously in the recovery. If you're not going home again anyway, you may as well go somewhere where you can get a start on building a new life for yourself -- which isn't going to happen in a refuge camp.

Pittsburgh has been hemorrahging people for years in large part due to economics -- but those problems are mostly about taxes and government abuses, not a fundamental lack of jobs, and refuges would presumably have a different tax situation. (By the time that changes, they would be able to move to the 'burbs.) There's room here, and infrastructure, and (so far as I can tell) jobs. I assume there are dozens of other cities with similar situations.

In some respects, since our housefire, I don't have to ask anymore. I was lying on the bed reading when it happened. I put on my wedding ring (on the nighttable beside me), shouldered my purse (for wallet-contents-type things), threw on slippers and my bathrobe and headed for the stairs. At the top of the stairs I turned around (throwing off and abandoning the slippers in the process) and grabbed Boopsie, carrying her out with me.
When I realized the fire extinguisher wouldn't be sufficient, I walked down the driveway and put Boopsie in our car.

I think if I'd had the time to grab one more thing, I would've wanted my laptop (largely for all the data stored upon it). For Ian, it would likely have been his guitar.

Of course, the more time you might have, the harder it gets. Clothes and personal effects sufficient for how long? Items of sentimental value, like my wedding album and our ketubah? Or items of monetary value which can be resold for cash? Tough choices I'm glad I don't have to be making.

For most of Monday every single link "above the fold" on CNN was Katrina-related

What do you consider to be above the fold? Check google's cache of CNN.com (http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:XBvJ7pr5NuMJ:www.cnn.com/+CNN&hl=en) from Monday evening (I have no idea how long this link will be good...). There's several non-Katrina links in the 'more news' section (which I consider above the fold, but it may be a monitor resolution difference).

In fact I remember being annoyed that Green Day's MTV thing was anywhere NEAR the Katrina stuff; that particular link was up all day.

Personally, I don't mind having a bit of a break from Iraq, but then I get it all day at work, too, not just from the news sources.

You are not. This is a serious, serious concern, especially when coupled with the multitude of toxic-chemical-producing plants in the area. A nasty combination of biological unpleasantness, magnified by the coming heat, with really ugly chemicals making clean-up even harder.

The "good" news is that the river tends to flush things out into the ocean, rather than further inland into more populated areas. But that's cold comfort, given the ten mile wide incubator that the city has become.

It looks like a lot of people have interpreted your thought experiment to mean "What would you take to prepare for what comes next?" Which wasn't my first assumption (though it probably should've been). I was thinking more "What stuff has so much value to you that you couldn't bear to leave it behind?" (less than or equal to the volume of space available in my car, obviously).

There would be the universal stuff you list, documents, money, jewelry. Also photo albums, written journals, and boxes of letters. Certain unreplaceable books (some out of print, some signed by the author, one hand-sewn for me when I was an infant). My teddy bear. As many of the original paintings (and one wall hanging) as I could fit (one or two are investments, others presents from friends who made them). The essential things from my computer put on CD. A couple of unfindable-again CDs. If there's room, some of the tiny things given to me by different relatives (some deceased). If I magically found time to get a bike rack, I'd take my bike; it's an old Italian racing bike that used to be my dad's. But that's unlikely.

This differed from the tsunami in two very important ways:

We had lots of warning this scenario might happen; we could evacuate.

The loss of life was mostly preventable; most of those who died chose to stay.

Clean undies

The kitties and bird + food + litter

Electronics: Laptop, cell phone, pda

Meds: ibuprofen and any prescriptions I happen to have (while I can be the vit. I in stores, I might need too quickly)

Drinks (so I can get further before stopping)

Scroll case with our awards

Some knickknacks from my deceased grandmothers

I'm referring to the section at the top, with a big feature story and usually about a dozen other links. This is before you get into the "world", "US", "sports", etc sections. To extend the metaphor, those are the front page below the fold.

This morning, if you counted the story about oil prices in the wake of the storm, every "above the fold" link was again about the storm -- even though if you followed the "developing story" link (and don't most people do that?) you got those same links there too.

Currently, in addition to the set of links in the "stomr" box, there are 8 above-the-fold storm links and 4 non-storm ones (one of which is about the cost of gas; the other three are Baghdad, Martha Stewart, and chimp DNA).

A minor quibble with:

The loss of life was mostly preventable; most of those who died chose to stay.

As has been pointed out else-net (including Making Light), many people in New Orleans don't have cars. At least according to

scyllacat, posting before the storm hit, there was no way to get out if you didn't have a car.

"This morning, I made sure the screens were on the store. Then I tried to make arrangements to leave. All car rentals, airlines, bus lines and the train station are now closed until further notice. They aren't even sure when they will be operating again. It's only after they are all closed that the Mayor orders evacuation -- then he orders incoming roads closed so no one can come get me out."

So, yes, some people who could have left chose to stay, and I agree that they chose their fate. What of the ones who couldn't leave?

This definitely sucks; the damage and disease potential are very high. Because they had warning, the loss of life will be much lower than it would have been otherwise. I think I was reading the mayor's comment too narrowly, perhaps because we (well, I -- I won't speak for others) have become used to talking about catastrophes in terms of body counts. And we shouldn't; that's a component but far from the whole picture.

So, yes, some people who could have left chose to stay, and I agree that they chose their fate. What of the ones who couldn't leave?

I was appalled when I read that the evacuation plan apparently consisted of "drive your car out". They should have kept the buses and trains running until the end and not worried about fares. I wonder how many people with car space even anticipated the question.

I pity the people who had no chance to leave. I pity the people who could have left and didn't, but it's a different kind of pity -- not for the results but for their stupidity.

My thought, as Katrina bore down on the city, ran more like this:

Pick a city, or several cities (Houston came to mind), far enough to not be in the path of the hurricane, but (potentially) close enough that you wouldn't need to refuel airplanes in NO. Get every plane you can, including cargo. In this situation, to heck with normal safety standards - flying out sitting on the floor in a cargo plane is still safer than staying. Fly 'em in empty, fly 'em out full. Turn over the runways as fast as possible - minimum FAA safety distances. Lather, rinse, repeat until the squall front of the storm closes the airports.
Likewise for trains - every rail car in the SE that you can get there in time, roll it into NO, roll it out full.
Again likewise for tractor-trailers, buses, rental fleets, etc. Gas up everything that will roll, fill it with people, head for safety.

Given the population of the city, you couldn't have gotten everyone in the time available. But every person you could have gotten out would have helped - especially now, as they try to evacuate the stranded amidst the floodwaters.

I wonder, when the counting is all done (potentially years from now), how many of the dead will be blamed for their fate when they couldn't get out? Whether any blame will be laid for an evacuation order [I hesitate to call it a plan] that made no allowance for those without their own transportation?
(Yes, there were shelters in-city, and many (but probably not anywhere near most) of those marooned in the city came to shelter. But, as the tens of thousands in the Superdome could tell you, that's nothing like getting out of town before the storm hit.)

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evacuations

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evacuation of dwelling, 12 hrs

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"above the fold"

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