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pegged him
SCA friends, both serious researchers, just got back from their month-long honeymoon in Scandinavia. One of them works at my company, so yesterday he was chatting with folks about the trip. When I joined the conversation, another coworker said to me "ask him how many pictures he took".
Wait, I said, let me try to guess first. I asked the coworker how many museums he went to, and he said "one or sometimes two a day", but they lost a couple days to travel. So, I said, average of one museum a day for 30 days? He said that was about right, and volunteered that almost all of them allowed photography. We had already established that he was using a digital camera, not film.
Ok, I said. I'm going to estimate that you took between 250 and 500 pictures per museum, probably closer to the former. (The other coworker's eyes get big.) So, I continued, if I take the conservative number for now, that's 7500. I'm guessing you took a few picturs of scenery and stuff but not a lot (other coworker looks startled), and I did start with a conservative estimate. So, let's say between 9000 and 10,000 pictures total (other coworker's jaw drops). How'd I do?
He's not sure, but he knows it's at least 9000 and he thinks not as many as 10,000. :-) The other coworker asked "how did you do that?!". I said "you just have to know him". (Besides, I showed my work.)
Wait, I said, let me try to guess first. I asked the coworker how many museums he went to, and he said "one or sometimes two a day", but they lost a couple days to travel. So, I said, average of one museum a day for 30 days? He said that was about right, and volunteered that almost all of them allowed photography. We had already established that he was using a digital camera, not film.
Ok, I said. I'm going to estimate that you took between 250 and 500 pictures per museum, probably closer to the former. (The other coworker's eyes get big.) So, I continued, if I take the conservative number for now, that's 7500. I'm guessing you took a few picturs of scenery and stuff but not a lot (other coworker looks startled), and I did start with a conservative estimate. So, let's say between 9000 and 10,000 pictures total (other coworker's jaw drops). How'd I do?
He's not sure, but he knows it's at least 9000 and he thinks not as many as 10,000. :-) The other coworker asked "how did you do that?!". I said "you just have to know him". (Besides, I showed my work.)
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Actually, knowing him, he probably did both so he'd have a backup. :-)
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This explaination leaves out the factor of how often a piano must be tuned and merely assumes every piano must be tuned annually without mentioning that assumption.
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