pandemic

[cellio]

Pennsylvania shut down "non-life-sustaining businesses" tonight. There's a link there with a detailed list of what's in and out -- some oddities (beer distributors are life-sustaining, apparently), but mostly what you'd expect.

And California extended the stay-at-home order already in force in San Francisco to the entire state tonight. Even so, their governor thinks half the state will be infected in the next eight weeks. I haven't heard any projections for PA, but cases here have been following the usual curve so far.

siderea posted a summary of the Imperial College report that might be spurring the government to take this more seriously. (The report is linked.) They ran simulations of a few response scenarios, ranging from "basically do nothing" to fuller responses. Even with stronger responses, it's looking grim. And it's (at the national level) self-inflicted; we saw what was happening elsewhere and dallied anyway.

Comments

[hlinspjalda]

SFGate, the local web news outlet here in the Cradle of Kingdoms, noted about the governor's words: A spokesperson for Newsom later told Politico that the 56 percent number reflects the infection rate if "mitigation efforts aren't taken into account." So not quite as dire as it sounds in headlines. But still bad.

[cellio]

That's an important detail that was not clear to me. Thank you for that correction.

[juan_gandhi]

Seems like, when things went serious, California, with Newsom, were relatively very smart and fast-moving, compared to DC swamp/ Pennsylvania looks totally idiotic, though.

[goljerp]

And New York State / City seems somewhere inbetween. It's not helping that our Governor doesn't like any plan he didn't think of (or that our Mayor keeps thinking of things, meaning the Gov. won't do 'em -- or else he resists doing sensible things, like closing the schools, until forced to).

Meanwhile, while testing is "ramping up", they're still saying it's just for people with obviously serious symptoms (or those exposed to a known case?). Which is all well and good, I suppose, but how does someone with mild symptoms who probably was on the subway with someone infected get tested?

Oh, well, be safe everyone!

[cellio]

News from NY has been confusing me; I didn't know the nature of the political wrangling between the mayor and governor. *Sigh*... let's hear it for personal agendas over community needs!

We need testing to be much more available than it is. I actually wonder if, at a certain point of severe symptoms, it'd be better to just *assume* that person has it (treatment's not going to change anyway) and instead test the people near that person.

[minoanmiss]

I actually wonder if, at a certain point of severe symptoms, it'd be better to just *assume* that person has it (treatment's not going to change anyway) and instead test the people near that person.

yes, this.

[madfilkentist]

I wonder what they're going to do with people who flout the orders. Pack them into jails, where they can spread the disease faster?

[cellio]

Here they've been releasing nonviolent offenders to reduce transmission risk in jails. I assume the punishment will be a fine not jail, but I haven't heard what "enforcement" means here.

[(Anonymous)]

A small correction: Calif extended the shelter in place order from the San Francisco Bay Area to the entire state. San Francisco is just one city. The existing order involved SF County (which is the city) and I believe 9 other counties, covering a huge area and nearly 8 million people. About 10 times the population of the city of SF.

I don't have a problem with beer being included as "essential" (alcohol is here too) as long as it's pickup only and no bars open to drink in (here in Calif all restaurants are takeout or delivery only and most who choose to stay open are doing curbside pickup too). I mean, we really don't want people venturing out just to get a drink.

Please pretend that Penn is like Calif and change your plans accordingly. Be safe out there!

[cellio]

Thanks for the correction. I had meant to write "metro SF", but that still might not have been accurate. (I was thinking about a relative in SF and got sloppy.)

Restaurants here have been restricted to take-out, drive-through, or delivery since the beginning of the week. I think the mayor recommended it about the same time the county required it, and I think it was the same day the governor made it state-wide but that might have been the next day. Anyway, no bars or restaurant dining here. I just saw today that a few local breweries are offering curbside pickup of bottles or (new) growlers; I might look into that, as much to support the local businesses as to get the beer. (Pesach is in a few weeks so I don't want to bring a lot of beer into the house, but on the other hand, it's a few weeks away.)

[hlinspjalda]

The original shelter in place order was for six California counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara. That's the San Francisco peninsula and the East Bay (including me). Santa Cruz County (southwestern peninsula) added its own order Monday, and the North Bay (Napa, Solano, and Sonoma counties) did not.